本帖最後由 jenghong 於 2011-4-14 23:25 編輯
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根據英國研究指出
本人對此新聞
no comment !
但本者實事求是 勿枉勿縱的本站精神
我把原文找出來看看
底下這個是由這二位掛名的氣候變遷文章
(全文在此 http://www.gbn.com/consulting/article_details.php?id=53 )
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United
States National Security
October 2003 (天呀 是2003的文章)
By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
在pdf中,有提到Japan的大概只有幾處:
(英文流利的幫忙看一下,日本的企圖是什麼???
我大致的理解是 上文中的"而日本為了生存下去，
可能決定侵略鄰國，以便占領大陸領土"
其中"以便占領大陸領土"這一句話是此文的作者自己加上去的,
如果有人有不同的看法,歡迎提供)
2012:
Regional
instability leads Japan
to develop force
projection capability
2015:
Strategic
agreement between
Japan and Russia for
Siberia and Sakhalin
energy resources
2018:
China intervenes
in Kazakhstan to
protect pipelines
regularly disrupted by
rebels and criminals.
2030: Tension growing
between China and
Japan over Russian
energy
-------------------
As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate
change, many countries’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will create a
sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to
reclaim balance. Imagine eastern European countries, struggling to feed their
populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose
population is already in decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply.
Or, picture Japan, suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination
of its fresh water supply, eying Russia’s Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an
energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural
processes. Envision Pakistan, India, and China – all armed with nuclear weapons –
skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land.
Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights – leading to
conflicts at sea. And, countries including the United States would be likely to better
secure their borders.With over 200 river basins touching multiple nations, we can
expect conflict over access to water for drinking, irrigation, and transportation. The
Danube touches twelve nations, the Nile runs though nine, and the Amazon runs
through seven.
--------------
In this world of warring states, nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. As cooling
drives up demand, existing hydrocarbon supplies are stretched thin. With a scarcity
of energy supply – and a growing need for access -- nuclear energy will become a
critical source of power, and this will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries
develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security.
China, India, Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, France, and Germany will
all have nuclear weapons capability, as will Israel, Iran, Egypt, and North Korea.
Managing the military and political tension, occasional skirmishes, and threat of war
will be a challenge. Countries such as Japan, that have a great deal of social cohesion
(meaning the government is able to effectively engage its population in changing
behavior) are most likely to fair well. Countries whose diversity already produces
conflict, such as India, South Africa and Indonesia, will have trouble maintaining
order. Adaptability and access to resources will be key. Perhaps the most frustrating
challenge abrupt climate change will pose is that we’ll never know how far we are
into the climate change scenario and how many more years – 10, 100, 1000 --- remain
before some kind of return to warmer conditions as the thermohaline circulation
starts up again. When carrying capacity drops suddenly, civilization is faced with
new challenges that today seem unimaginable. |
