过去的文章....参考一下，现在是2011年1月29日
节译：http://hedge201x.blog.hexun.com/ (欢迎转载)
翻译自 http://www.morningliberty.com/20 ... n-of-2010-meltdown/
这是五月中的文章，5/6 日美股大崩盘后，DJ 单日跌 1000 点，大家开始关注很多知名分析师或预测机构都提到 2010 下半年会进入崩盘，但随着六七月的美股回稳，这些言论又再度被淡忘... 投资者的记性真是不好。
当然股市里总是随时存在几千个分析师看多，几千个分析师看空。但下述言论跟外交委员会的周边机构 「Bilderberg 俱乐部」及「三边委员会」在 2009/2010 年的流出来的资讯其实是吻合的，各种预测如金融市场、中东战争、恐怖攻击、油价也一再呼应本博客或其他网友多次转述的内容。这些预测者很多都在金融市场打滚几十年了，是最近才变得异常的悲观。
ps. 这里提到的 FDIC / 商业不动产 / MUNI bond (特别是加州债) / 美国市场利率变化 / 粮食危机(与油价连动) 都是我们关心已久的问题，未来有机会再发文一一详述。
Economic Collapse – Martial Law – 24 Experts Warn of 2010 Meltdown
From: Tracy
Date: Sat, May 15, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Subject: Predictions for the Rest of 2010
Predictions For The Rest Of 2010
Bob Chapman
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.
2010 上半年美国人对经济的幻想仍脱离现实。七月到十月期间金融海啸才会开始。FED 会全力保住自己的生命而不顾对政治的影响后果... (由 FED 内部会议所流出的资讯)。2010 年最后一季 (10-12 月) 甚至可能出现军事戒严，更可能延续到 2011 年的前六个月。FDIC (美国储蓄保险) 将在 2010 年 9 月破产。商业不动产也计划在 2010 年崩溃。华尔街相信 2010 年 100% 会发生债市危机，特别是 MUNI bond (州及地方政府债券)。美元将在 2010 年结束前正式贬值。
(译者注，这是去年底今年初 Bob Chapman 就提出的预测，他当时说是内线人士告诉他的，所谓军事戒严请参考另一篇关于 FEMA 的文章)
Gerald Celente
Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.
恐怖攻击并且出现「2010 崩溃」。美元一开始会贬值 40% = 史上大萧条，比 1930 大萧条更糟。
(译者注，这是老牌 Trend Journal 的作者，预测过诸如 2008 股市崩盘)
Igor Panarin
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000
根据 1998 年的机密资料，美国可能会在 2010 年解体为六个部份。(译者注，这是一位俄国教授，这件事可信度似乎不高)
Neithercorps
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.
除非出现金融奇迹或 FED 解体，否则经济第三也是最后阶段的崩溃将会在 2010 年的某个时机发生。雪球效应般的引爆将会在年底前显现出来。FED 以及 IMF 的行为似乎表现出他们正在准备一个几周或几个月内会发生的崩溃 ，以及准备美元必然的失败。 (译者注，这只是一个 blog 的发言)
Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.
七月以后事情变得很奇怪。发生革命。美元会在 2010 年十一月以前死亡。 (译者注，webbots 是一种分析网页找出潜意识的方式，没有科学根据，过去有异常准确的预测也有很多不准的)
LEAP 20/20
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."
根据 25 名欧洲经济学家 - 预测 2010 下半年情势会突然紧张。前几年的权宜措施将无法继续维持。全球金融市场将会出现完美风暴并无可避免的影响美国的利率。 ... Elliott Wave (艾略特波浪) 所谓超级第三周期波用简单的话来讲就是「最大的，所有东西都会一起崩溃」 (译者注，LEAP/2010 是欧洲的智库。过去有准确也有不准确的预测。)
Joseph Meyer
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.
不动产将会持续滑落，建议买贵重金属及商品，并且在家里安全的地方存放现金(以免银行关门)。股市会从今年三四月最高点 (约 10,850) 滑落到 2450~4125。 (译者注，这是一位有三十年证券经验的分析师)
Harry Dent (investor)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.
2010 年后期很可能出现第二次的崩盘.... 他预测到会先拉高到 10,700-11,500 (已成真)... 今年道琼斯可能跌回到 3,000-5,000 点。 (译者注，这是 2010 大崩坏一书的作者，他是非常有名的预测家，但他在 2009 年股市回涨曾修正过自己的言论)
Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)
他过去也有预测多次美股大趋势，他二月认为道琼斯会跌到 7,286，如果这里没支撑住，最低可能会跌到 1980-80 的水准 1,000 点。目前是他前所未见的最糟行动。(Bob Chapman 说这位分析师从来没有作出这种惊悚的言论，他从未故作惊世骇俗的言论来取得注意，而且他几乎从未预测错误)
(译者注，这是华尔街非常有名的道氏理论专家，常在主流财经媒体发言)
Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.
在 2007 年七月预测 2010 年中会出现跟 1929 年股市崩盘类似的危机。从 2009 年十月到 2010 年五月，人们将会开始发现事情并不是像政府想的一样。(译者注，欧债危机爆发)在 2010 年五月，危机将会开始用全部的力道爆发并且延续到 2011 年。他曾准确的预测到本次衰退以及当时的市场崩盘。
(译者注，这是西班牙的教授，除了上述预测外，他也有预测到年初的欧股崩盘)
Lyndon Larouche
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
危机将一周一周的加速，并在今年某个时间崩溃。当这件事发生后，将是从罗马帝国灭亡后最大的崩溃。(译者注，这是一位美国的著名政治运动者，并受当局压制)
WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)
"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."
Eric deCarbonnel
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.
预测 2010 将发生粮食危机、国债问题、衍生性商品将因美元贬值而失去价值
Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.
预测 2010 中可能在中东有重大军事冲突，将影响我们生活的每一个层面。伊朗可能会阻止石油从波斯湾出口。油价将会飙涨到太空去，油价势必让经济崩溃... 除此之外，经济指标也已经显示危机正在来临。不管中东是否会有战争，2010 都将是解体的一年。
(译者注，这是一个基督教的预言机构。它对于石油的描述跟很多人认为中东战争将是经济崩溃的借口相同)
Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.
预测到今年四月的高点，但仍认为这是熊市上涨，接下来会大跌。
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.
Robert Prechter
Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.
艾略特波浪国际的创办人，恳求散户投资人退场。他在 2009 年三月 (股市最低点) 准确开始看多，但目前认为 "预测 2010 再度崩盘将会让股市跌破 2009 年低点。"他建议散户有耐心，不要急着进场，并且把钱放在现金或等同物 (译者注：应是指短期国债)
Richard Mogey
Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.
James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.
预期 2010 年中开始转坏
Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)
"In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players." Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.
他提到 Janet Yellen 成为 FED 公开市场操作的投票者，会加速美元的崩跌。(译者注：这是著名的看空美元/看多黄金的经济学家，也预测到 2008 年的崩盘，他的长期看法是有事实根据的，但时间点不见得准确)
Lindsey Williams
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.
美元在今年结束前会贬值 30-50%，美国人将会无法负担食物的价格，这是一个光明会的内部人士跟他说的。(译者注：光明会便是控制共济会的核心，Lindsey Williams 是一位阴谋论者，他的说法很巧合的类似其他人)
Unnamed Economist working for US Gov't (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.
GLP 论坛的一个匿名在美国政府工作的经济学家说，过去两年的金融海啸跟未来相比是小巫见大巫。假如你还有工作，未来两三个月你可能会失业(2010 八月)。股市崩盘 = 大萧条。外国投资者不再买金融债务 = 崩溃。接下来有 620 万人将会失去他们的失业 (译者注，这里应该是指社会保险中的失业补助)
Jimmy "Doomsday"
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.
金银年中前将会分别跌破 $800/oz, $10/oz (这已预测失败) 接下来将会出现加州债务违约。Q3-Q4 美元指数会下跌到 65，商业不动产将会在第四季发生危机，将有超过 35 个州会需要 bailout... Q4 年底前黄金将会涨到 $1600/oz 而白银将会涨到 $35/oz。
George Ure
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then "all hell breaks lose" from then on through the rest of the year.
市场将会在夏季中到夏季末维持高点，然后地狱之门将会开启... (这也是一位资深分析师，发布十几年的投资指南) |
